Outline: This Assessment task involves writing a report about population dynamics and population forecast.
Population is the key to planning for the future. Due to natural population growth and migration, contemporary cities are under rapid changes. Understandings of demographic structure play a fundamental
role for city management. Thus, a number of planning documents starts with population forecast. The aim of the individual report is to analyse population structure, forecast future population, and identify expected
planning issues with respect to the changes in population and the demographic structure.
You are required to analyse Jakarta’s demographic structure and Jakarta’s population forecast. You must employ appropriate methods such as extrapolation and/or cohort-component methods. The keys are to understand the demographic structure and to provide planning
implications in your selected city/region instead of mathematical and technical explorations.
Assessment criteria will be based on how well you address the question, your understandings of the demographic structure in the selected city/region, comprehensiveness of analysis, and expression.
In more detail the report has to be articulated in the following main points in addition to the introduction and
Part A. Current demographic structure: You have to collect data about population in Jakarta. Analyse the current population structure that can provide meaningful information to planners.
You may make a population pyramid to show the demographic structure. Historical data about population changes may be also relevant to this section. In conjunction with demographic structure, socio-economic
backgrounds of Jakarta may provide a basic understanding of current dynamics.
Part B. Forecast of future population: Specify the target future year for population forecast. You can forecast the near or distant future. You can define the target year. Describe the method for the future population projection. Critical assessments of the assumptions are necessary. You can employ extrapolation methods and/or cohort-component methods. You may calculate future population or rely on other published documents. Describe the rationales of the forecast.
1. Part A (25%) Quality of data, understandings of the demographic structure in the selected city/region;
comprehensiveness of analysis.
2. Part B (25%) Understandings of employed projection method(s), ability of estimation; appropriateness
of population forecast; logical flows of population forecast with evidence.
3. Quality of coherency (15%) Clear organisation with an introduction, main sections and conclusion that
integrate into a coherent whole
4. Editing and references (10%) Proper and completed format in both bibliography and main body.
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