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-Read Chapter 9,10 and give your estimate value of L
What Is a Good Estimate for L?
The term L is the lifetime of an advanced civilization for interstellar communication. The term L has units of years per number of civilization that develops communication skills. In the textbook, we explored some of the main points with respect to how long an advanced civilization would be able to communicate. This is an important term in the Drake Equation.As a group, discuss the facts from class and make a decision on what L estimate should be used. To get full credit, each student will need to present facts from our readings as well as demonstrate an understanding of the implications of those facts. Second Paragraph
Approximately how many stars are within that distance?In the textbook, we explored some of the implications of the Drake Equation result. In this forum, calculate your entire Drake Equation result and discuss the number. Is your result much higher than, much lower than, or about what you expected?These are the estimates that I got through out this semester. From these estimate write the final estimate of Drake Equation. (Refer to Chapter 10)1. R* is the average rate star formation according to Drakes Equation. There are data showing that the rate of stars that disappear or die is so high. Initially, scientists thought that stars may be there no more. But recent data has shown that the Milky Way is constantly gaining new gas from the satellite galaxies. The gas helps in formation of new stars that replace the ones which have disappeared. It is not possible to count all the stars because it will take forever and the dust is making some stars invisible. Scientists take a sample of a section and count the number of stars in it. Assumptions are then made based on the representative section. The number is between 200 to 400 billion stars. The age of the first Milky Way is estimated at 13.7 billion years old. Estimated R* can be calculated basing on the assumptions made by the astronomers.R* 200 – 400Total 200 billionThe total can is then divided by age of the first Milky Way.200/13.7 billion years = 15 to 30 stars born per yearMy estimate of R would be 202.
It is still not clear to determine the number of stars that form planets or how common planets form around stars. Scientists have been left to estimate the number due to limitations in technology. But it has been projected that in the coming years, it will be possible to determine the accurate fp. The available exoplanet information says that a star has 1.6 planets on average. This is an indication that a star is shared by at least more than a single planet. The number suggests that there are more planets than stars making the fp-1. It is very common for planets to form stars. The stars are often found in multiples with the number adding up to 50%.3.
The existing evidence, however scarce suggests that apart from earth, life has the capability of existing in the atmosphere of Venus and the undergrounds of Mars. Also, Europa and Titan; moons of Jupiter and Saturn respectively could support life. Uranus and Neptune have atmospheres on which oceans are assumed to be floating and in which life could be supported. The primary factors considered in listing these regions of the solar system is mainly the temperatures and liquids on the listed regions. Other factors that could influence the same include the pH and existence of life-supporting gasses. This gives the factors that are central to the approximation of some life-supporting planetary systems, np of 10. Considering the exoplanetary systems, the number is approximated to range from 0.01-10. Given the scanty statistics, the approximation stands at 5. Arguably, therefore, total np is therefore 15.4.A good estimate of fl is 0.9 because of the availability of conditions that support life on earth and life-liking planets. In order to have a good estimate of fl, there is a need to examine factors that influence the existence of life in the life-liking planets. The reading proves the fl is very large such as 0.9; this is because life quickly happened after giant rocks stopped falling from the sky thereby proving that there are suitable conditions to support life. The other reason for the large fl is the fact that organic molecules exist in space, this establishes the fact that complexity of amino acids is common and that there are conditions in the life-liking planets. The suitable conditions enable evolution of life through a number of steps. The other reason why fl could be very high is that there could be possibility of silicon-based life contrary to carbon-based life which is common in the society. Probability of silicon-based life could increase fl by 135 times because silicon is 135 times abundance than carbon on earth. Additionally, silicon has similar properties as carbon in that it makes four bonds and has the ability to form long chains of molecules which are similar to nucleic acids or proteins; the building components of life.5.A good estimate of fi is 0.3. fi is the estimate that an intelligent life will occur in a planet that can support life, this makes fi to be very low, preferably 0.3 and this is because biological complexity which leads to intelligence requires a benign environment which is very unlikely on Earth and on other planets. Harsh environments tend to result in the development of simpler organisms making development of intelligent life very unlikely. The estimate of 0.3 for the development of intelligent life also borrows heavily from the fact that the Earth took a total of 4.6 billion years; this is one third of the age of earth. Intelligence came into reality as a result of smooth evolution and not a rapid change in organisms; this supports the fact that intelligence in other planets is highly unlikely because of lack of suitable conditions to support the same. Finally, facts from the class that intelligence of species increase with time posits that intelligence is a statistical fluke with a probability of between 10-7% occurrence.6.
A good estimate of fc is 0.0001. fc is the ability to develop extra-somatic storage of information. It is also the ability to advance intelligent civilization or interstellar communication to understand the likelihood of communicating with aliens. The estimate of fc is as low as 1/10000, which is 0.0001, because there have not been developed any mechanisms of communicating with interstellar bodies. Research proves that intelligent life is very interested in communicating with extraterrestrial life hence establishing the need to engage in vast research on the possibility of life on other planets. Furthermore, the fraction is small because other planets do not have the gadgets that can aid in interstellar communication; this is in addition to the fact that species in other planets do not have knowledge on trending communication technologies on earth thereby inhibiting this form of communication. Finally, there have not been identified any form of technology and innovation among the ET life and have also not realized their own Corpernican revolution that can introduced them to modern-day civilizations. It is prudent for civilizations to acknowledge the importance of ET life to realize that life is possible.
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